MyDD :: The McCain Factor

The McCain Factor

by descrates, Fri Jun 24, 2005 at 06:54:14 PM EST

I'm still thinking a lot about the possible ramifications of a McCain run for the presidency.

The first thing that comes to mind would be a cautionary nod to Democrats. Its becoming more and more likely, imho, that we may be witnessing the early rumbling of the eventual implosion of the Bush administration. Most liberals will logically assume that this will favor them in the next election--and they may ultimately be right. However, its important to really understand what exactly will be the collateral damage of such an implosion.

The most recent example of such an implosion would, of course, be the Nixon administration. When Nixon went down, he actually set up Ronald Reagan's eventual ascendency. Nixon was more or less a continuance of the big government approach to the governance which had been in play for over forty years. Than came Vietnam and the New Left and, finally, Watergate, all of which ended up not so much discrediting Rupublicans--at least not for long anyway--but instead, activist government. Reagan's triumph was made ideologically possible by Nixon's collapse.

When a presidency implodes, wild forces are unleased which are highly unpredictable. Where will the leftovers of the Bush coalition land? Will there be a resulting disillusionment with radical conservatism? This would of course be a good thing, but would that mean Liberals reap the benefits or would a moderate like McCain gain a great deal of power from it--especially being moderately pro-life?

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Implosion (none / 0)

All good questions. I think if this administration implodes, which seems more and more likely these days, it will be quite different from Nixon.

Nixon was taken down by his criminal behavior and that of his closest staff. If this admin comes down it will be because of systemic attitudes of hubris, corruption, secrecy, a total disregard for truth and disastrous policy decisions, not individual criminal behavior.

Consequently the effects on Bush's party, and his coaliton, will be far worse. It will be systemic, not personal. They, and their governing policies, will be discredited, including radical conservatism. It would be more like the repudiaton of LBJ combined with the corrupton of Watergate and the anger of a public that was lied into a costly and unwinnable war.

I don't see clearly how McCain benefits from this. Sure, he's a "moderate" and moderates will benefit from the repudiaton of extremism, but how could he benefit more than the Dems? In comparison to Bush, or a Santorum, or a DeLay he, and others like him such as Hegel, may come out smelling like a rose, but he is/was still too close with W, especially after campaigning for him so publicly, to escape untainted.

He will gain a lot of power within what will surely be a fractured Republican party, and maybe even become its leader, but that is a two edged sword as his "maverick" status and attendant ability to evade responsibility for bad policy, will be gone.

If Bush goes down big time, no rethug will escape unscathed except those who will be scrambling to change party affiliations.

by mjshep on Fri Jun 24, 2005 at 07:46:48 PM EST

It won't be like 2000 (none / 0)

McCain will not be treated the same way as he was in 2000. I think there is a good chance he will be ignored this time around, unless he really throws bombs throughout the campaign.
I think Chuck Hagel and Mitt Romney will probably be the media darlings on the Republican side for 2008. McCain's time came and went.

http://politizine.blogspot.com: A political fanzine containing random musings about politics, music and modern times.

by politizine on Fri Jun 24, 2005 at 10:51:32 PM EST

Re: It won't be like 2000 (none / 0)

Mitt Romney is already a media darling. There seems to be a new article about his candidacy out every other day.. As far as McCain. I think he is also a media darling and I think they do take him seriously, but I don't think he will get the nomination. The religious right hates him. Of course, they think Hillary will win our nomination and they hate her more. So they might back McCain b/c they think he will win in the general election.

Tennesseans for Russ Feingold

by schwompa on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 09:57:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't worry About Him (none / 0)

John McCain will not run for President again, he is 69 years old, right now he is as old as Ronald Reagan was when he was first sworn in in 1980. If John McCain were to run in 2008 and win he would be 73 years old when sworn in. And he would be 81 when he would step down were he to serve 2 terms. So do not worry about John McCain, it ain't gonna happen. We need to worry about Rudy Giuliani.

by Odysseus on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 03:44:59 AM EST

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