I admit that I soured a bit on Obama during the summer. A few things he did annoyed me, and though I never changed sides, I could have certainly been described as a "weak" supporter.

But as I said so long ago, the hard facts of this election are coming home, and Obama's in a VERY strong position.

Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight.com has the score, and as he says, McCain is near a sacking.

McCain can't let this settle anymore. One reason Obama lost New Hampshire was that he support after Iowa was so sudden that it was easily erased.

Every day makes this harder to erase. Obama has had 10 days of a statisically significant lead in the Gallup tracking poll. So look for fireworks in the debate from a frustrated candidate who will do almost anything to have a chance for that office.

I honestly wish that McCain hadn't disqualified himself, but he has, and Obama must now begin to seriously consider how not only to win, but also to govern. FDR had a lot longer to plan than Obama will.

Yes, the race will tighten, and yes, pundits will freak. But it will take a big shift that doesn't look to be coming soon. Let this election show the true failures of non-conservative Republican policies.

And, let's pray for his safety. It only takes one person convinced he's a radical Muslim.