What is up with this Stupid CBS poll???

by vermillion, Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 02:45:33 AM EST

Oct. 6, 2008
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(CBS) In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.

The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.

In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.

Barack Obama holds a 20 point lead in terms of enthusiasm. Fifty-eight percent of Obama voters say they are very enthusiastic about their candidate, while only 38 percent of John McCain voters say the same about the Arizona senator.

Roughly one in five registered voters have yet to commit to a candidate, though they may lean towards one or the other.

PLEASE GO TO CBSNews.com FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE....

This is the ONLY major poll AFTER the VP debate to show this race TIGHTENING. What gives??

BTW, I had to repost this diary, so your responses will be appreciated again...




Tags: Hopefully an outlier... (all tags)

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Re: What is up with this Stupid CBS poll??? (2.00 / 1)

What gives me hope is the Rasmussen poll that shows Obama with his largest lead yet....eight points.


by vermillion on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 02:49:49 AM EST

proper link (2.00 / 1)

HERE


by Todd Beeton on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 02:53:24 AM EST

Re: What is up with this Stupid CBS poll??? (none / 0)

It's an outlier and likely a buncha bullshit.

Remember when the race was tied and there was a poll that came out saying that Obama was 10 points ahead? Same thing.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 02:59:40 AM EST

It has a margin of error of 3 points (none / 0)

This means that Obama's range is between 45 and 51 and McCain's range is between 42 and 48.  In other words, it says exactly the same thing that every other poll out there is saying.  This is why it's important to look at the totality of polling data.  Single polls may register statistically correct findings that the bald face numbers don't register.  The CBS poll tells the same story that all other polling is telling.  One expects when there are vast numbers of polls, some will report tight leads, and some will report expansive leads.  

What is important in this poll is that it confirms Obama is ahead.  Given the title wave of state-level data that shows Obama ahead by comfortable margins in the state races, we have to assume this poll, though statistically correct, probably doesn't show a margin as wide as it really is.


That's it, baby; let's go win this election!
by Beltway Dem on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 08:24:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

One poll isn't always enough to gauge. (none / 0)

You really should look at several polls asking the same or similar questions over the same period of time.  When you average those out you get a much better idea.  In statistical inference you will always have the possibility of getting unusual or outlying data.  In fact the numbers you read in a poll are based on a probability.  So you should read that 49% of voters PROBABLY prefer Obama within a particular margin of error.

Obviously the sampling method and the questions themselves makes a huge difference in your data.  And all of it only makes sense if the people you're asking have been paying attention to your topic.  Otherwise, experiments have shown, they'll just lie to you and pretend they know what they're talking about (much like Sarah Palin).  Since it's a heavily covered presidential election, the numbers are probably accurate and the data is just a bit unusual.


by shalca on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 03:59:46 AM EST

I think it means we are doomed. (none / 0)

Not to be too pessimistic, mind you.  


by Dumbo on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 04:08:49 AM EST

Re: I think it means we are doomed. (none / 0)

Actually, I suspect the margin is wider than this poll indicates, but if these are the results on election night, I will be delighted to win.


That's it, baby; let's go win this election!
by Beltway Dem on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 08:26:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is up with this Stupid CBS poll??? (none / 0)

The people who profit from keeping the election a horse race will cook the numbers to make the race look tight. The outcome of the debate tonight is therefore easy to predict ahead of time. McCain will WIN BIG regardless of actual events, and the polls will tighten or even flip.

Unless I miss my guess.

D O N ' T   W O R R Y !


"But not me personally were those cheers for"
by QTG on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 08:37:07 AM EST

Hotline also has the race tightening (none / 0)

The point is that we need to stop taking victory laps and get back into the race.


by Drummond on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 10:57:52 AM EST

Re: What is up with this Stupid CBS poll??? (none / 0)

The CBS poll isn't the only poll showing the race tightening.  The Diego/Hotline daily tracking poll shows Obama only up by 2% nationwide.  http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/


by karajan72 on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 11:13:01 AM EST


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